UConn Completes Historic Comeback to Stun Duke No. 1 seeds had been 134-0 all time when leading by 15 or more points at halftime. Duke led 44-25 with 1:33 remaining in the first half. UConn’s in-game win probability dropped to 1.3%. And then the Huskies did what no team in tournament history had done before. … Read more
Saturday’s Elite Eight: Favorites Dominated After five days of underdogs thriving against the spread in this tournament, Saturday delivered a correction. Both favorites covered, and neither game was particularly close by the final buzzer. Illinois 71, Iowa 59. The Illini were 7.5-point favorites and won by 12. Iowa’s Cinderella run, which included upsets of defending … Read more
Sweet 16 Final Tally: Underdogs 5-3 ATS Before looking ahead, the full Sweet 16 deserves its final accounting. Over two nights of regional semifinal action, underdogs covered the spread in five of eight games. Two won outright. The public kept loading up on favorites, and the contrarian side kept cashing. Thursday delivered a 3-1 underdog … Read more
Thursday’s Scoreboard: Underdogs Own the Sweet 16 Four Sweet 16 games tipped off Thursday night. Three of the four underdogs covered the spread, and two won outright. The betting public took another hit in a tournament that keeps rewarding the contrarian side of the ledger. Here’s what happened, and why public perception keeps getting it … Read more
Iowa Stunned the Defending Champs. Nebraska Says So What. The Iowa-Nebraska Sweet 16 matchup tonight in Houston presents one of the most unusual betting situations of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Iowa, a 9-seed that knocked off defending national champion Florida as a 10.5-point underdog five days ago, now faces a Nebraska team making its first … Read more
After Florida Fell, the Public Switched Sides When No. 9 Iowa knocked off defending champion and No. 1 seed Florida 73-72 on Sunday, something shifted in the betting market. Alvaro Folgueiras’ go-ahead three-pointer with 4.5 seconds left didn’t just end Florida’s title defense. It rewired public sentiment heading into the Sweet 16. For the first … Read more
Chalk Dominated the First Weekend. The Public Wants More. The 2026 NCAA Tournament’s opening weekend produced one of the most favorite-friendly results in modern bracket history. Higher-seeded teams went 39-9 straight up through the first two rounds, and on Friday alone, favorites swept all 16 games for the first time since 1992. Just 13 outright … Read more
A 10.5-Point Underdog Ended the Dynasty The defending national champions are done. No. 9 seed Iowa knocked off No. 1 seed Florida 73-72 on Sunday night in Tampa, ending the Gators’ title defense with a corner three-pointer from Alvaro Folgueiras with 4.5 seconds remaining. Florida, favored by 10.5 points, couldn’t get a shot off on … Read more
Favorites Went 16-0 on Friday. Here Is Why That Matters. Thursday’s opening round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament belonged to underdogs. Lower seeds went 10-6 against the spread with six outright victories, busting brackets and confirming everything contrarian bettors already suspected about public overvaluation of chalk. Then Friday happened. Every single betting favorite won outright. … Read more
Four Double-Digit Upsets in One Day Thursday’s Round of 64 produced four wins by double-digit seeds, matching the total from the entire 2025 first round in a single afternoon. No. 12 High Point stunned No. 5 Wisconsin. No. 11 VCU erased a 19-point deficit to eliminate No. 6 North Carolina in overtime. No. 11 Texas … Read more